A Binary Logistic Regression Model for Assessing the Effect of Farmers-Herders Crisis on Postharvest Losses of Crops in Benue State

Abstract

In this research work, the binary logistic regression model was employed to examine the socio-demographic characteristics of affected farmers, identify the causes of the crisis, and quantify its impact on postharvest losses. Primary data were collected from 450 farmers in Agatu, Guma and Logo local government areas using structured questionnaires and key informant interviews. A random sampling technique was used to ensure representativeness. The study reveals that farming in Benue State is male-dominated (80.9%), with most farmers aged 41-50 years (32.9%) and having primary or secondary education (76.2%). The majority (77.2%) is married, with extensive farming experience and 45.6% have farmed for 11-20 years. Household sizes are relatively large, with 58.7% having 6-10 members, and 83.3% of farmers own land. Despite this, most farmers operate small to medium-sized farms (1-10 hectares, 88.2%), and 35.8% earn between ₦200,000-₦300,000 annually, indicating financial vulnerability. Analysis of the crisis’s causes indicates that overgrazing (x̅ = 4.78), indiscriminate bush burning (x̅ = 4.78), historical grudges (x̅ = 4.75), political influence (x̅ = 4.73), desertification (x̅ = 4.70), poverty (x̅ = 4.70), reprisal attacks (x̅ = 4.69), and poor cattle control (x̅ = 4.76) are the most significant triggers of conflict. Other contributing factors include cultural and religious differences, cattle theft, and scarcity of grazing land.